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Don't Count on the Polls

hillbarwc3.jpgI suspect many people are closely watching the polls in North Carolina and Indiana.  Clearly there seems to be an obsession with trying to figure out exactly who will emerge with an an advantage on Tuesday.  Unfortunately, the only sure thing about the polls in this year's Democratic Primary races is that they haven't been very reliable.  In Pennslyvania it was believed that Hillary Clinton had squandered a large lead in the days leading to her nearly ten point victory.  What has happened?  Is it that people aren't willing to admit they aren't going to vote for Barack Obama?  Or is it that something else is to blame? 

With technology changing and less and less people maintaining both a home and cell phone, it must certainly be more difficult to get a real cross section of any population.  One statistic has remained steady and that is that whites are voting for Hillary Clinton and African Americans are voting for Barack Obama.  I don't think we need a pollster to explain to us to expect more of the same. 

Look for Hillary Clinton to win Indiana.  I think the recent Supreme Court case allowing for voters to be required to present a valid ID as a ruling that works in her favor.  The timing of this particular ruling couldn't have been any better for her.  It reminds me of when the State of Florida set up traffic stops near polling places during the Bush-Gore fiasco.  Expect lots of complaints from minority voters in Indiana on Tuesday.

North Carolina is a much closer call.  The GOP has most likely helped Hillary by running those Reverend Wright ads.  Even so, the latest polls have Barack leading in the State by single digits.  I still believe Hillary might just win this one, after all,  North Carolina has about ten percent undecideds and lately Hillary has been getting their votes by nearly 70 percent.  I can't wait until Tuesday!  It's gonna be an interesting day.
Posted on Friday, May 2, 2008 at 10:13PM by Registered CommenterThe Urban Blogger | CommentsPost a Comment

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